The winter of art's discontent

Xu Beihong's 1951 painting Cultivation of the Peaceful Land

Will China continue to buoy the world art market against the backdrop of a global economic recession, as it did in the winter of 2008 when the nouveau riche were racing to raise their paddles at every auction?

This question has been preying on the minds of art dealers, as art markets around the world continue to suffer sharp declines while news of the unyielding ascent of the Chinese art market dominates headlines.

As the figures from China's autumn art sales begin to come in, the answer is starting to take shape: China's art market, which, according to art information provider ArtPrice, overtook the markets in the US and Britian as only a few months ago, is now struggling to maintain its previous momentum.

Some smaller auction houses are still wrapping up their autumn sales season, but most of the major auction houses, including Poly International, China Guardian and Beijing Council, completed their season earlier this month.

The early results show that despite buyers' continued interest in purchasing art, the pace of growth in the market has apparently slowed.

Figures show that while sales have increased since last fall, they have declined since spring.

Auction giant Poly International's autumn sales totalled 4.92 billion yuan ($771 million), down from its spring season's impressive 6.13 billion yuan. Another emerging private auction house, Beijing Council, which his smaller than the state-run Poly International, raked in 1.82 billion yuan this autumn, down from its spring sales of about 2 billion yuan.

At a forum held Wednesday in Beijing, several auction giants expressed less optimism in the current market compared to previous years.

"The golden time is in the past," said Gan Xuejun, director of Huachen, an auction house founded 10 years ago. He explained that in the midst of the astounding market success of the past several years, no one dared to speculate how high prices would climb.

"Sales always surpassed everyone's expectations," he added. "But now we might start to worry about whether some pieces will be sold at a fair price in next year's spring sales."

Indeed, many works that failed to entice buyers at auction this fall had been valued at much higher prices earlier in the year. Fan Zeng, the prices of whose modern ink paintings have been steadily increasing, had several of his pieces passed over at Poly International this autumn.

Fan's famous painting A Song of Fair Women sold for 120 million yuan in 2008, and his work became so coveted in recent years that numerous imitations were produced, some selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Dong Guoqiang, head of Beijing Council, echoed Gan's bleak outlook on the market. Among a number of experts and insiders who are preparing for upcoming challenges in the art market, he concluded that "due to these autumn sales, auction houses will have to make every effort to win collectors in the future."

"For all of us in the industry, it will be a harsh battle," he added.

Auction hammers failed to sell a wide range of pieces by some famous contemporary artists whose work was highly sought after in previous years.

Flower, an oil painting by Liu Wei, whose starting price was set at between 1 million yuan and 1.2 million yuan, failed to sell at a Poly International auction.

Some of Liu's works were sold for millions of dollars in both domestic and overseas auctions in recent years.

Born in 1965 in Beijing, Liu Wei is one of China's cynical realist painters, whose most notable members, like Fang Lijun and Yue Minjun, earned their reputations in the international art world for their cynical expression of the transitions of Chinese society.

Some pieces by Yue and Fang also found no buyers at auction this fall.

"This might indicate that contemporary works of that genre are no longer the collectors' favorites," speculated art market expert Zhao Li.

In any market, there are bulls and there are bears. While there is less optimism for the contemporary art scene, some more traditional works fetched astronomical prices in this year's autumn sales.

The sale of one piece by famous Chinese painter Xu Beihong (1895-1953) set the art world abuzz, fetching nearly 266.8 million yuan despite being generally considered one of Xu's more minor works. Created in 1951, it is a pastoral scene of three farmers cultivating their land with an ox.

Although the art world is accustomed to surprising changes in the market, it is hard to explain why Xu's work, with an initial bid set for 150 million yuan, was sold at such a high price. It may be the first sign of a trend toward traditional-style art, despite a seemingly less prosperous market.

"Appreciation for more traditional art seems to be growing," Zhao said.